The problems currently encountered on Tesla's stock price include but are not limited to the global economic downturn, Musk's pledge blowout, bearish market sentiment, and so on.
But at its core, it is still the myth of new energy growth disappeared.
1, not just the fundamentals of the problem
Musk acquired Twitter, pledged 270 million shares.
Now it has fallen almost burst. So it's not just a matter of fundamentals.
When acquiring Twitter in April this year, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing the provisions of Musk's agreement with the bank, that if the value of Musk's future loans exceeded 35% of his collateral value, then he would face a margin call. In other words, if the value of Musk's pledged Tesla stock shrinks to $36 billion (-43%), then he will be forced to call a margin call. If Musk faces a margin call, he would have to sell the rest of his unpledged Tesla shares, the report said.
The pledged Tesla shares have long fallen below the closeout line, forcing him to sell off a large amount of Tesla shares as its stock price plunged during the year. Musk recently sold about 22 million more shares of Tesla stock, worth about $3.6 billion, according to a regulatory filing in mid-December. Earlier this year, Musk told his fans on social media that he had "no further plans to sell Tesla stock" after April 28.
According to Business Insider, Tesla currently has 3% of its equity shorted, making it the second highest percentage of short-selling U.S. companies after Apple.
By the way, the pledge blowout is also the reason for the plunge of many domestic stocks in previous years.
2, remove the aura of high growth high-tech, Tesla is also a manufacturing company.
AAPL's PE has always been about 20x-30x.
TSLA's stock is mainly earning valuation, PE highest rush to 200x +. As a comparison, Nvidia and AMD's PE highs are also around 100x\70x.
Of course, a similar drop in valuation happened to BYD.
BYD's PE also dropped from a high of 300x to 70-80x, which, of course, has a lot to do with BYD's greatly improved profitability.
3, the high growth period of the electric vehicle industry is indeed over.
Leaving aside the United States, a large market for traditional fuel vehicles, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in new car sales in China and Europe is over 30%.
What does this mean?
Penetration rises from 5% to 30%, a five-fold increase.
And penetration from 30% to 50% is a less than 1X improvement.
The myth of high growth has been shattered in the feedback from the P/E ratio.
The P/E ratio is essentially the discounting of future growth into the stock price.
I don't really want to say anything about Musk's energy on Twitter.
Could Musk be better off than he is now even if he were to go all in on Tesla? Unlikely.
The current problems with Tesla's stock price include but are not limited to the global economic downturn, Musk's pledges blowing up, bearish market sentiment and so on.
But at its core, it is the myth of new energy growth that has disappeared.
Author: Steven Ting
Cofounder of www.cykapu.com, father of two children. As a man over 30, only write the thing i am interesting in.